This article is more than 4 months old

Mango prices expected to spike this summer as warm winter takes toll on Queensland crops

This article is more than 4 months old

Supermarkets will likely have less of the fruit on shelves as farmers report poor flowering conditions

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The price of mangoes is expected to rise this summer, with record high winter temperatures taking their toll on the crop.

There is talk among some Queensland farmers of yield declines of up to 40% but the Australian Mango Industry Association is reassuring consumers there will still be mangoes on shelves this Christmas.

Brett Kelly, the association’s chief executive officer, says it is too early to know how much of an impact the weather will have on the size of this year’s crop.

“The flowering’s been a bit late due to the weather in Queensland. That means that the volume is probably going to be down a little bit, but it’s still very early to tell,” Kelly said.

The association has only produced a formal production estimate for one market so far this season, the Northern Territory, because mango producers in the Top End are the first to harvest.

They are predicted to see production fall from 2.6m to 2.1m trays, a reduction of about 20%. The NT represents about one-fifth of Australia’s production.

Mangoes typically need at least a few days of cooler weather to flower – but winter came late or not at all in many growing regions in 2023.

As a result farmers are expecting flowering to happen later and yields to be lower.

Ben Martin from Marto’s Mangoes in Bowen, north Queensland, says nobody really knows how big or small this year’s crop will be.

“There’s figures getting thrown around [of yield drops] up to 40%,” he said.

“I’d be extremely surprised if it was 40% down. You know it’s really early. If it was 20 to 30%, I’d say that would be it.”

Martin said “mother nature” would ultimately decide the size of the crop, with various factors affecting production, including some that have left farmers shaking their heads.

He said if a farmer heavily prunes a tree one year it typically won’t flower much the year after. But this year those trees are some of his biggest producers.

“Everything you know has gone the opposite way,” Martin said.

A lower supply of mangoes would likely raise prices, which could help growers who have been battered by years of very low prices amid strong yields.

Production hit 10.7m trays in 2022, with some farmers making a loss on every tray.

When asked about the response of mango farmers to climate change risks, Kelly said “they’re always planning ahead, but they just adapt and overcome”.

“There’s no major issue or concern that we’re going to be in a position in five years or 10 years where you won’t be able to farm,” he said. “But obviously, you have to adapt to the seasonality as to what that will be.”

Australia’s berry industry is meanwhile expecting a banner year due to less winter cloud cover and strong growing conditions.

As a result prices are tipped to fall for a range of fruits including raspberries, blackberries and strawberries, Berries Australia executive director Rachel Mackenzie.